Russia's compatriot
policies are officially meant to protect ethnic Russians living in
nearby countries, but have served Russia's territorial expansionism in
the past.
Agnia Grigas
In fact these compatriot
policies can be viewed as part of Putin's new military doctrine that
seeks territorial gains in the former Soviet republics, particularly
where there is a receptive population of Russian speakers.
The compatriot policies,
outlined in Russia's "National Security Strategy to 2020," were
introduced in 2000 during Putin's first presidential term. They call for
the political, economic and, potentially, military protection of the
rights and interests of Russian citizens and ethnic Russians living
abroad.
An effective tactic
associated with the policies is to give Russian citizenship to ethnic
Russians in foreign states so as to better protect their interests.
Tellingly, Russia's national security strategy emphasizes that
compatriots are an important tool for achieving Russia's foreign policy aims.
Looking at Russia's
neighborhood, one can already see how compatriot policy has assisted
Russia's foreign policy and territorial expansion. Prior to the
Georgian-Russian war in 2008, Georgia was seeking closer relations with
the West and distancing itself from Russia (in a very similar vein to
Ukraine today).
Meanwhile Moscow was
handing out citizenship to the inhabitants of the separatist Georgian
territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Thus the "protection of
Russian citizens" became one of Russia's main motives for going to war
with Georgia in 2008 and securing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as Russian
protectorates.
But Ukraine does not have
to look to the Caucasus to see compatriot policy in action. On
Ukraine's southwestern border, Transnistria is a separatist territory of
Moldova which has also become effectively a Russian military-controlled
territory as the Kremlin sought to "protect" the Russian speakers and
eventually Russian citizens.
Farther afield, Russia
has also taken great pains to cultivate the loyalty of its compatriots
in the Baltic states, particularly in Estonia and Latvia. Well aware of
Russia's compatriot tactics, Lithuania, which currently holds the
rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council, called an urgent
meeting and also invoked the NATO treaty on Ukraine.
For Moscow, Crimea is
much more important than South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria. First,
Crimea became Ukrainian territory only in 1954 when the Soviet Union's
leader Nikita Khrushchev gave it to Kiev under the overall authority of
the Soviet Union. Its loss after the disintegration of the Soviet Union
was a major blow to leaders in Moscow.
Second, Sevastopol, one
of Crimea's major cities, serves as the naval base for Russia's Black
Sea fleet. It is a prized territory that allows the Russian navy direct
access to the Mediterranean.
Crimea is a particularly
soft target for Russia's compatriot policies. Unlike Western Ukraine,
where people speak Ukrainian, or even Eastern Ukraine, which is Russian
speaking, Crimea is predominantly ethnically Russian.
With Crimea's Russians
protesting the turn of events in Kiev's Independence Square and
expressing their solidarity with Moscow, a secessionist movement is
almost inevitable. Already, the Crimean parliament announced that it would hold a referendum to increase the peninsula's autonomy from Ukraine and installed a pro-Russian prime minister.
While Crimea's fate
seems almost certain to follow those of South Ossetia, Abkhazia or
Transnistria, other states near Russia that also have significant
populations of Russian speakers should be vigilant.
Putin's compatriot doctrine is here to stay. Thus it is no wonder Georgia will likely be urgently seeking integration with NATO and the EU. Ukraine should stabilize its government and consider following suit.
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